Number 12 on the Prospect Pond brings us to Des Moines for the first time. Connor Dewar lands at #12 after a short four game stint with the Wild. Dewar is a Center from Manitoba that the Wild selected in the 3rd round of 2018. In the same vein of #14 prospect Josh Pillar, Connor Dewar went undrafted when first eligible for the NHL draft in 2017. The 2017-18 saw Connor Dewar break out for the Everett Silvertips as he matched his point total with games played at 68. After a stellar 2017-18 season, Dewar returned to Everett donning the “C” for the 2018-19 season. The 2018-19 season saw Dewar put up 81 points across 59 games, placing him at 10th in the WHL in PPG for the season. Following the 2019-20 season, he joined the Iowa Wild as his junior eligibility expired.
Dewar got off to a slow start in his professional career putting up 19 points in 52 games with the Iowa Wild in 2019-20. Despite this, he returned for 2020-21, and seemingly was able to adapt to the AHL pace and physicality. Last season saw Dewar put up 23 points across 32 games, for a PPG of 0.72. This is a respectable point total for a 21 year old in the AHL. While the number doesn’t jump off the page, it puts him in contention to be a bottom 6 NHL Center.
Dewar’s 2020-21 season in Iowa was enough to earn him a pre-season camp spot with the Wild. Through a short pre-season Dewar was a -3 across two games, and was sent down to Iowa. Despite the disappointing pre-season, after putting up 4 points in 4 games with Iowa, Dewar was sent up I-35 to St. Paul after Mats Zuccarello and Rem Pitlick went on the COVID-19 list. Dewar again did not impress with his time with the Wild, as he was a -3 across four games. He also ended up in the box three times in this short stint. After just 4 games his failure to impress ended up in beinst sent back to Iowa. Although a lot would have needed to be done to keep a roster spot, it was a disappointing stint nonetheless.
The Pond Report
Listed at 5’10, 182 lbs, makes Dewar just slightly undersized, but certainly nothing that is difficult to overcome. Despite not being a hulking figure on the ice, he plays a physical and scrappy game. His speed in the AHL is above average, but in the NHL is a bit below average. It is important to note that not everyone can be above average, and most bottom 6 forwards are below average in terms of speed. His speed also isn’t an ocean apart from NHL average, like previously reviewed Alexander Khovanov’s Model-T pace.
Also in line with most eventual bottom 6 players, he does not put in too many highlight real goals, but instead relies on his work ethic to pick up points. In Everett, Dewar was extremely effective on the powerplay, and often operated from the point before walking in to fire off low shots that ended up in plenty of powerplay goals and assists. Iowa gave him opportunities on the power play last season, and if he spends this season with the Baby Wild he will be able to continue developing his skills there.
In the defensive zone Dewar doesn’t overcommit, but is not at all afraid to play the body. He has seen some time on the penalty kill, a skill that is often expected of NHL bottom 6 Centers. He has also proven to be strong in the face-off circle over the past few years. This is a good trait for a bottom 6 Center to be able to jump in and win face-offs in their own zone. Many NHL analysts don’t believe in the power of the face-off anymore, but most coaches still expect their Centers to be respectable at the dot.
Over his career his defensive play has led to some impressive +/- statistics. In spite of this, Dewar has not looked as great in his own zone when put up against NHL talent. It is obvious that he does not possess the skill to be a big player immediately in the NHL, and will have to develop to keep a roster spot for more than short replacement stints.
Analysis
Despite a short sample size, his time in the NHL has proven that he needs a bit of time to develop in all three zones. This is not a knock against the player. It often takes mid-round picks that break into the NHL until they are 23 or 24 to have developed their game to the point of being true NHL caliber. Connor Dewar is on a positive development slope and at this point just needs to take that last step to push into the NHL. Dewar is a pick from the Fenton era that actually fits the bill that Guerin and Evason are looking for. He is a team player that plays well in all three zones, something that is becoming and will continue to be a theme on the Prospect Pond. Dewar has the grittiness expected of a bottom 6 forward.
The current sentiment among fans is that the Wild are desperate at Center. While this may currently be their weakest position, this should not be the case in 3-5 years. We already reviewed Caedan Bankier, and will continue to see more Centers on this list. The former Everett Silvertips Captain has a few years on most of the Center prospects. But there is a chance that there will be some crowding out at this position in 3+ years. Marco Rossi and JEEK will hopefully hold down the top two lines at Center, which will create a battle between current options such as Nico Sturm and Freddy Gaudreau, and a whole slew of incoming young players for the bottom two lines. This is a good problem for a franchise to have. Especially in a position that Wild fans have complained about so much since the departure of Captain Koivu.
Projections
Chances of becoming NHL regular: 50%
I again want to reiterate how misleading small sample sizes can be. However, if Dewar looked decent in his short time with the Wild this number would be 55% or higher. I personally believe that he just needs more time in the AHL to build his game to the highest level. That being said, there are examples of players that are impressive in the AHL, but never make an impact in the NHL. Kyle Rau is an excellent case study of this fact.
Chances of becoming elite NHL’er (Top 50): <1%
There is nothing about Dewar’s game that will be elite at the NHL level. It is extremely unlikely that he ever becomes more than a bottom 6 Center. That being said, without an act of God, becoming a star is nowhere near likely. Despite that, hopefully he can develop into a decent depth option in a position the Wild currently struggle with.
NHL arrival: 2022-23 season
Dewar has already played 4 games with the Wild. But the NHL arrival projection does not project when a player will first get an NHL game. Rather it projects when they will stay in the NHL for an extended run of 20ish games or more. The Manitoban has continued developing positively. If that continues this season in Iowa, he should be given the chance for some extended time in St. Paul.
Conclusion
Thank you again for coming to the Pond. We only have one more player to look at before hitting the top 10. Please stay tuned on Tuesdays and Saturdays for each new iteration of the Prospect Pond. Do you agree with this assessment of Dewar? Will he become a name Wild fans recognize in years to come? Comment below your opinions.