In the following weeks we will begin to countdown the top 15 prospects currently in the pipeline for the Wild. In order to qualify for the prospect pond, a player must not turn 23 before January 1st of 2022, and must have fewer than 25 games in the NHL. The qualifications for being a prospect vary across different sites, but I have selected a narrower criteria that specifically puts the focus on talent that hasn’t seen the bright lights of the NHL, but that as Wild fans we hope will in the coming years.
Before the Top 15 Countdown begins, we will write about two players that won’t be making our Top 15. Both of these players will get their own article.
Alexander Khovanov
It is important to note that the Top 15 is completely opinion based. This first article will likely be the most controversial of the entire ranking system. So, get your pitchforks ready for me Wild fans, but Alex Khovanov will not be on the Top 15 prospect list this season. That’s right, the Russian center that finished 2nd in scoring in the QMJHL in 2019-20 behind only Alexis Lafreniere hasn’t made it. After Khovanov’s huge 19-20 QMJHL season, a year that also saw him put up 8 points in 7 games with Team Russia at the World Junior Cup, Wild fans thought that they might have stolen a top 6 forward with a 3rd round pick. I too was all aboard the Khovanov hype train, but last season the tides turned for Khovanov.
Khovanov spent 2020-21 back in Russia where he started with a seven game stint in the KHL with AK Bars Kazan. Through those seven games, Khovanov failed to put up a single point, and was sent to the minor leagues of Russia, the VHL, after reports that he was not able to get along with his coaches. Details about these disagreements with the coaching staff at AK Bars were sparse, but Khovanov had gone from averaging nearly two points a night in Quebec, to not being able to find his scoring touch at all.
Khovanov was sent to the VHL team of AK Bars, known as Bars Kazan, where he played the rest of the season, putting up 25 points in 35 games between both the regular season and playoffs. On the surface, averaging .71 points per game is by no means abysmal, but it is important to understand the quality of play in the VHL. The VHL is Russia’s second tier of professional hockey, with many of the teams in the league being feeder teams for KHL clubs. While the KHL is a very strong hockey league, with many putting it as the second best league in the world, the VHL is not a step or two below the KHL, but rather a long elevator ride away in terms of quality of play.
Aside from a few very rare exceptions, players that dominate and average over a point per game in the VHL struggle to average even half a point per game if they move to the KHL. Where in North America it is expected for nearly everyone except very top prospects to hone their skills in the AHL for at least a few seasons, this is simply not the case in Russia.
The VHL is much more akin to the ECHL than it is the AHL in its relation to producing talent for the respective top leagues. While Khovanov was 20 for most of last season, any true NHL talent would absolutely dominate in the VHL. In a league the caliber of the VHL Khovanov should have been averaging well north of a point per game to truly be considered a top prospect.
How can Khovanov go from averaging nearly two points per game in the Q one season, to not even being able to crack a roster in the KHL the next? While there are quite a few factors at play here, the most important is that the QMJHL is not a very good league. While the QMJHL has produced some of the top talent in NHL history including current superstars Sidney Crosby and Nate Mackinnon, these generational talents are by far the exception to the rule. Crosby and Mackinnon put up video game numbers as 17 and 18 year olds, Khovanov’s dominant season came as a 19/20 year old. This may not seem like that huge of a deal, but every year in the QMJHL there are 20 year old players that put up massive scoring tallys like Khovanov, and then never even come near the NHL. For example, the top scorer of the 2018-19 QMJHL season (Peter Abandonatto) is starting this year in the ECHL after averaging just over .5 ppg in the AHL last season. There’s plenty of examples of top QMJHL scorers that never came near the NHL, and plenty more that got a sniff at just a few games but couldn’t crack a regular roster spot.
The QMJHL produces a few first and second round picks in the NHL draft each year, but the depth of the OHL and WHL just is not there in the QMJHL. Khovanov put up plenty of points a few years ago, but it is important to understand that many of the Goalies that Khovanov abused in 2019-20 are on track to become accountants…not NHL net-minders.
Khovanov is a talented player, he has some puck skill and some playmaking ability, and a good shot. Some people have compared his shot to Alex Ovechkin, but this is a massive reach. The biggest knock on Khovanov is his skating ability. Watching him against QMJHL competition it is obvious that he is nowhere near NHL level in terms of skating ability. Players that become decent NHL’ers that come from the QMJHL should look like a Ferrari racing a Toyota Corolla. In contrast to this Khovanov looked more like a Camry racing a Corolla, only slightly faster. Again it is important to note that this was the case despite Khovanov being 19/20 years old playing in a league with an average age of 18.1. With speed far below average by NHL standards, he will not be able to find the space at even strength to get his shot off and use his skills.
Khovanov also is not at all impressive off the puck and in his own end. This will not bode well for making a team with a GM and Head Coach that value all around play. Khovanov has put up some impressive +/- stats, but he also takes a great deal of hooking and tripping penalties to make up for his lack of speed.
Projections for Khovanov
At this point, I do not see Khovanov ever cracking the Wild roster as anything more than just a fill in for a few games to cover for injuries, and that isn’t even a sure thing. Khovanov would look like a JV sprinter racing against Usain Bolt in the NHL in terms of speed. The disparity is just too wide, and really there is no way to make up for that.
Khovanov is set to join the Iowa Wild at some point hopefully early on this season after getting some passport and work clearances. After a difficult COVID season in Russia, Khovanov will have to impress when he arrives in Iowa to be considered for future Wild squads. Hopefully next year at this time Khovanov has proven me wrong and can find his way back onto the Top 15 of the Prospect Pond, but only time will tell.