Today we kick off the Top 15 of the Prospect Pond. Writing the Prospect Pond is a ton of fun due to the depth of talent in the Wild system. That being said, it’s important to note that there is some potential outside of the Top 15 of the Pond. Just because someone isn’t Top 15 doesn’t mean they might not make the team some day. The most difficult spot on the Pond to pick was the #15 slot.
At the end of the day, the 15th slot was a battle between Defenseman Marshall Warren, currently at Boston College, and Right Wing Pavel Novak currently playing with the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL. Warren has shown promise and certainly has every chance of making an NHL roster as a third pairing defenseman, but Pavel Novak ended up taking the 15th spot from Warren beating him out by just a nose.
While Novak has skills that make him deserving of his place on the Prospect Pond, the deciding factor in Novak beating out Warren is simply that he is a Right Wing. As we will see in the coming weeks of the Prospect Pond, the Wild do not have many RW prospects in the pipeline at all. The current iteration of the Wild sees Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello, and Ryan Hartman holding the top 3 lines at RW (when healthy).
At this point in time that core on the right side is by no means weak. The issue arises from the fact that it is a bit uncertain whether the Wild will have the means to re-sign Fiala after the end of the season. On top of that, Zuccarello is 34 years old. Zuccarello has shown signs that he has maybe found the Tom Brady fountain of youth, as last season he tied his highest PPG average in his career as a 33 year old, and was averaging over 1PPG before injury this season. That being said, if the Wild can’t resign Fiala, and Zuccarello shows a sharp regression in the coming season, RW will become the new position of doom for the Wild that has been occupied by Center for many seasons now.
This brings us back to Pavel Novak, one of only two RW prospects that will hit the Top 15. Novak was a 5th round selection of the Wild in the 2020 draft. In his draft season Novak had 58 points in 55 games with Kelowna of the WHL, a PPG average that you don’t see in late round prospects. Novak is a quick player with decent hands, and good passing ability. While he doesn’t fly at top speed, he gets up to speed fast and has very strong edgework. Novak is able to control the pace entering the zone and seems to have a good sense of when to get rid of the puck, and when to let an opening develop. This skill doesn’t always translate to the speed of the NHL, but if Novak’s quickness keeps developing he may be able to compete at the highest level.
Novak’s biggest downside is his size. Something that is not without value, but I personally believe is overrated in the NHL. Novak is listed at 5’9, 170lbs, and his lack of size seemed to hurt him as he only put up 5 points across 24 games in Czech Pro Leagues last season. Novak also has been noted by scouts to be weak on the boards, although this is something that is easier to develop than raw skill or speed. Some scouts have also knocked Novak’s shot, and while it certainly isn’t elite, he has shown an ability to find the net at the Junior level. On the backhand Novak is also strong, and is able to quickly release his backhand shot to surprise goalies. Novak also has the coordination around the net to put rebounds back and pick up garbage goals, both on the forehand and the backhand. This is another skill that is immensely more difficult in the NHL with the strength of NHL pushing guys in front of their netminder out of the way much better than Junior players can.
At this point on the Prospect Pond, players are by no means guaranteed to become NHL players. That being said, Novak has shown that he has the potential to be a legitimate scoring threat, and on a roster that may face a shortage of RW’s, especially right shot RW’s, he should be given a chance to crack the roster eventually. The 5th round of 2015 brought the Wild Kirill Kaprizov, it would be a boon to the team if they find another 5th round NHL’er in Novak.
We will soon reveal our only other Top 15 RW in the Wild pipeline. We will also go a bit more in depth on how this position could become troublesome for the team unless the stars align in the organizations favor. Thanks for lacing up at the Prospect Pond, and stay tuned for 14 more future Wild stars.